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In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.
The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.
The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.
The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.
The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.
The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits.The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment.In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.